Mortgage delinquencies of 60 days or more are forecast to rise through the first quarter of 2012 and then decline to about 5% by the end of 2012, according to TransUnion.
After six consecutive quarterly declines between the fourth quarter of 2009 and the second quarter of 2011, 60-day mortgage delinquencies are expected to peak at 6.02% during the first quarter of 2012 before beginning their decline, the consumer credit reporting agency said.
“Although house prices and unemployment will likely face continued pressure next year, this forecast calls for gradual improvements in the second half of 2012 to other key variables, like improving credit quality of new originations, consumer confidence and GDP, that will positively influence homeowners’ ability and willingness to pay their mortgages,” said Tim Martin, group vice president of U.S. housing for TransUnion.
“If things go as expected, there are no additional negative shocks to the U.S. economy and the average borrower’s situation, mortgage delinquencies could fall as much as 16% in 2012 compared to 2011.”
The expected mortgage delinquency decline in 2012 would follow recent yearly trends, including an expected 7% decrease by the end of this year and a 7% reduction in 2010. This is in contrast to more than 50% year-over-year increases between 2006 and 2009.
TransUnion projects delinquency declines for 38 states with the largest percentage declines forecast for Arizona (-46.25%), Wisconsin (-45.52%) and Colorado (-40.34%). Twelve states and the District of Columbia are expected to see increases.
The agency said credit card delinquency rates for borrowers 90 days or more delinquent on one or more of their credit cards reached their lowest levels in 17 years during the second quarter of 2011 (0.60%). It expects them to remain relatively low in 2012, decreasing approximately 7% from 0.74% in the fourth quarter of 2011 to 0.69% by the end of 2012.
Credit card debt per borrower in the third quarter of 2011 stood at $4,762, approximately $1,000 less than the second quarter of 2009, the quarter in which the recession ended.”
TransUnion’s forecasts are based on various economic assumptions, such as gross state product, consumer sentiment, unemployment rates and real estate values.
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