TransUnion released its annual forecasts on mortgage delinquency rates. The national mortgage loan delinquency rate (the ratio of borrowers 60 or more days past due) is projected to decline to 5.06 percent by the end of 2013 from an estimated 5.32 percent at the conclusion of 2012. TransUnion forecasts mortgage delinquencies, a statistic generally considered to be a precursor to foreclosure, will decline in 34 states and the District of Columbia with only 13 states experiencing increases.
The mortgage delinquency rate peaked in Q4 2009 at 6.89 percent after rising 12 consecutive quarters from its 1.94 percent mark in Q4 2006. The 255 percent increase in those three years was unprecedented in its extreme rise. Nearly three years after the peak in mortgage delinquency rates, as of Q3 2012 (the latest actual data available) mortgage delinquencies have only dropped 21 percent to 5.41 percent. If the TransUnion forecast holds true for 2013, the rate would have only dropped about 27 percent in four years and still well above the “normal” delinquency rate range of 1.5 to 2 percent.
TransUnion is projecting the largest mortgage delinquency rate declines to happen in Nevada, -18.62 percent; Minnesota, -13.58 percent; California, -12.14 percent; and Arizona, -11.61 percent. Other states that were most negatively impacted by the mortgage crisis, such as Florida, -8.39 percent; Georgia, -9.19 percent; New Jersey, -4.95 percent; and New York, -7.67 percent, also are expected to see declines.